Nigeria 2–1 Madagascar: Super Eagles Dominate Statistics to Open Group L Campaign With Victory
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| Nigeria recorded 22 shots and 1.61 xG in their 2–1 victory over Madagascar. |
Nigeria began their Group L campaign with a 2–1 victory over Madagascar, securing three points from their opening match. While the final scoreline was relatively close, the underlying statistics show a game in which the Super Eagles created considerably more attacking pressure and chances.
Nigeria finished with 55% possession, 22 shots, four big chances and 1.61 expected goals (xG), compared with Madagascar's 45% possession, four shots, one big chance and 0.31 xG.
The victory also leaves Nigeria second in Group L on three points, behind Guinea-Bissau on goal difference.
Source: Flashscore — match statistics supplied for analysis.
Nigeria 2–1 Madagascar: Match Overview
| Statistic | Nigeria | Madagascar |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 2 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 1.61 | 0.31 |
| xG on target (xGOT) | 1.08 | 0.46 |
| Possession | 55% | 45% |
| Total shots | 22 | 4 |
| Shots on target | 4 | 1 |
| Shots off target | 13 | 2 |
| Blocked shots | 5 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box | 18 | 2 |
| Shots outside the box | 4 | 2 |
| Big chances | 4 | 1 |
| Corner kicks | 5 | 2 |
| Passes completed | 404/460 | 327/392 |
| Pass accuracy | 88% | 83% |
| Final-third pass accuracy | 77% | 57% |
| Expected assists (xA) | 1.21 | 0.24 |
| Touches in opposition box | 34 | 6 |
| Fouls | 14 | 9 |
| Tackles won | 65% | 53% |
| Duels won | 41 | 45 |
| Clearances | 9 | 25 |
| Interceptions | 8 | 8 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 0 | 2 |
Nigeria's 1.61 xG Shows Clear Attacking Superiority
Nigeria's 1.61 expected goals compared with Madagascar's 0.31 is one of the clearest indicators of the match.
The Super Eagles generated more opportunities that, based on their locations and characteristics, carried a greater probability of resulting in goals.
The difference of 1.30 xG between the teams also reflects the disparity in attacking activity. Nigeria repeatedly reached dangerous areas, while Madagascar struggled to create opportunities of comparable quality.
Nigeria eventually scored twice, meaning their two goals were above their pre-shot expected-goal total but still reasonably consistent with the volume of chances they created.
22 Shots vs 4: Nigeria Controlled the Attacking Numbers
Perhaps the biggest statistical difference was the 22–4 shot advantage.
Nigeria attempted more than five times as many shots as Madagascar.
However, the number also highlights an area that could have been better. Of Nigeria's 22 attempts, only four were on target, while 13 were off target and five were blocked.
That means Nigeria produced plenty of attempts but converted only a relatively small proportion of them into efforts that actually tested the goalkeeper.
Madagascar, meanwhile, managed only four attempts throughout the match.
This suggests that Nigeria spent much of the game playing on the front foot, while Madagascar had far fewer opportunities to threaten the Nigerian defence.
Only Four Shots on Target Despite 22 Attempts
Nigeria's four shots on target compared with Madagascar's one further illustrates the difference in attacking pressure.
Nigeria had five times as many efforts on target as Madagascar.
However, the 22 total shots versus four on target also indicates that Nigeria's finishing and shot selection left room for improvement.
The Super Eagles were able to get into shooting positions regularly, but many attempts either missed the target or were blocked.
For a team producing 1.61 xG, converting more of those opportunities into shots on target could have made the scoreline more comfortable.
18 Shots Inside the Box Shows Nigeria Reached Dangerous Areas
Nigeria recorded 18 shots from inside the penalty area, compared with just two for Madagascar.
This is a particularly important statistic because shots inside the box generally provide a clearer route to goal than attempts from distance.
Nigeria's 34 touches in the opposition penalty area also support the picture of sustained attacking pressure.
Madagascar had only six touches in Nigeria's box, meaning the visitors had significantly fewer opportunities to establish themselves in dangerous attacking positions.
Four Big Chances to Madagascar's One
Nigeria created four big chances, while Madagascar recorded just one.
This is another statistic that explains why Nigeria had the larger xG figure.
The Super Eagles were not simply shooting more often; they were also creating several opportunities classified as particularly significant scoring chances.
Yet the final score remained 2–1, demonstrating that chance creation does not automatically translate into a comfortable victory.
Possession: Nigeria 55%–45% Madagascar
Nigeria enjoyed 55% possession, giving them a 10-percentage-point advantage.
The possession figure was not overwhelming, but combined with the 22–4 shot advantage, it becomes more significant.
Nigeria were able to have slightly more of the ball while turning that possession into considerably more attacking activity.
Madagascar's 45% possession shows that they were not completely starved of the ball, but their limited shot count suggests they struggled to turn possession into meaningful attacking opportunities.
Nigeria's Passing Game Was More Accurate
Nigeria completed 404 of 460 passes, giving them an 88% pass accuracy.
Madagascar completed 327 of 392 passes at 83%.
The five-percentage-point difference indicates that Nigeria generally circulated the ball more efficiently.
The difference became even more pronounced in the final third.
Nigeria completed 77% of their final-third passes, compared with Madagascar's 57%.
That 20-percentage-point gap is significant because the final third is where passing accuracy can directly contribute to maintaining attacks and creating chances.
Long Passing: Madagascar More Accurate
Interestingly, Madagascar had the better success rate with long passes.
Madagascar completed 32 of 52 long passes, a success rate of 62%, compared with Nigeria's 19 of 36, or 53%.
This suggests Madagascar were relatively more effective when attempting to bypass areas of the pitch with longer deliveries.
However, the long-passing advantage did not translate into greater attacking production, as Nigeria still dominated shots, big chances and touches in the opposition box.
Crossing Accuracy Was Identical
Both teams recorded 33% crossing accuracy.
Nigeria completed 10 of 30 crosses, while Madagascar completed 2 of 6.
The identical percentage means neither team had a statistical advantage in crossing efficiency.
Nigeria's much higher number of crossing attempts, however, reflects the greater amount of attacking activity they generated.
xA: Nigeria Created Far More Assist Potential
Nigeria's 1.21 expected assists (xA) compared with Madagascar's 0.24 is another strong indication of the difference in chance creation.
xA measures the quality of passes that lead to potential scoring opportunities.
Nigeria's figure was more than five times Madagascar's.
This fits with the rest of the statistics: Nigeria not only shot more but also created more opportunities for teammates.
Corners: Nigeria 5–2 Madagascar
Nigeria won five corners, while Madagascar had two.
The 5–2 advantage further reflects Nigeria's greater attacking pressure.
Corners are not guaranteed chances, but winning more of them usually indicates a team is spending more time attacking the opponent's defensive third and forcing defenders to intervene.
Nigeria Had 34 Touches in the Opposition Box
Nigeria recorded 34 touches inside Madagascar's penalty area.
Madagascar managed just six inside Nigeria's box.
The difference of 28 touches is substantial.
It demonstrates that Nigeria repeatedly entered the most dangerous attacking zone, whereas Madagascar spent comparatively little time with possession in Nigeria's penalty area.
This statistic also helps explain the large difference in total shots and big chances.
Defensive Statistics Tell an Interesting Story
Nigeria won 65% of their tackles, compared with Madagascar's 53%.
The Super Eagles therefore had the better tackle success rate.
However, Madagascar won more overall duels, 45–41.
These statistics are not contradictory because tackle success and total duels measure different things. Nigeria were more successful in the specific tackle metric, while Madagascar won a greater number of the broader individual contests recorded in the match.
Both teams made eight interceptions, showing an identical total in that defensive category.
Madagascar Made 25 Clearances
One of the most revealing defensive statistics is the 25 clearances by Madagascar, compared with nine by Nigeria.
That huge difference fits the overall pattern of the match.
Nigeria's greater attacking pressure meant Madagascar had to repeatedly remove the ball from dangerous areas.
Their high clearance total is consistent with Nigeria recording:
- 22 shots
- 18 shots inside the box
- 34 touches in the opposition box
- Four big chances
- Five corners
In other words, Madagascar spent significant periods dealing with Nigeria's attacks.
Goalkeeping: Madagascar Made Two Saves
Nigeria's goalkeeper recorded zero saves, while Madagascar's goalkeeper made two saves.
This corresponds with the shot-on-target figures: Nigeria had four efforts on target, while Madagascar had only one.
The statistics therefore suggest Nigeria's goalkeeper had relatively little direct work to do, while Madagascar's goalkeeper was required to make interventions.
However, the fact that Nigeria conceded once despite recording no goalkeeper saves means Madagascar's lone shot on target resulted in a goal.
xGOT Shows the Difference in Chance Quality
Nigeria recorded 1.08 xGOT, compared with Madagascar's 0.46.
Expected goals on target estimates the quality of attempts that actually reached the target.
Nigeria's 1.08 xGOT compared with Madagascar's 0.46 shows that the Super Eagles' shots on target carried greater combined scoring value.
Interestingly, Nigeria's xGOT was lower than their overall xG of 1.61, reflecting the fact that many of their attempts either missed the target or were blocked.
The 2–1 Scoreline Doesn't Fully Reflect the Statistical Difference
The final score suggests a relatively competitive match, but the underlying numbers tell a different story.
Nigeria had:
22 shots vs 4
18 box shots vs 2
4 big chances vs 1
34 box touches vs 6
1.61 xG vs 0.31
1.21 xA vs 0.24
Those figures show that Nigeria generated substantially more attacking production.
At the same time, the four shots on target from 22 attempts show why the Super Eagles did not turn their statistical advantage into a wider margin.
Ilenikhena and Usor Among Nigeria's Goalscorers
The match timeline shows Ilenikhena scoring Nigeria's first goal in first-half stoppage time to make it 1–1.
Moses Usor then restored Nigeria's lead in the second half, scoring in the 65th minute.
The statistics provide context for Usor's goal: Nigeria had already established a significant attacking advantage, with 18 shots inside the box and four big chances.
The goal ultimately proved decisive as Nigeria held on to claim all three points.
Group L Standings After Nigeria's Victory
The result puts Nigeria second in Group L after the opening round:
| Position | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guinea-Bissau | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 2 | Nigeria | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 3 | Madagascar | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 4 | Tanzania | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Nigeria and Guinea-Bissau both have three points, but Guinea-Bissau are above the Super Eagles because of their superior +2 goal difference compared with Nigeria's +1.
Madagascar and Tanzania both remain without points after their opening matches.
Final Statistical Analysis
Nigeria's 2–1 victory over Madagascar was supported by a strong statistical performance.
The most important numbers were the 22–4 shot advantage, 18–2 advantage in shots inside the box, 34–6 advantage in touches inside the opposition box and 1.61–0.31 xG advantage.
Nigeria also produced considerably more attacking creativity, recording 1.21 xA compared with Madagascar's 0.24.
The main statistical issue was efficiency. Despite generating 22 shots and four big chances, Nigeria managed only four shots on target. That allowed Madagascar to remain within one goal of the Super Eagles despite creating far fewer chances.
Ultimately, the numbers show a Nigeria side that controlled the attacking side of the match and created substantially more opportunities, while Madagascar's limited attacking output meant they had fewer chances to influence the game.
The three points move Nigeria to second place in Group L, giving the Super Eagles a positive start to their campaign.
Source: Match statistics and match events via Flashscore Nigeria vs Madagascar match page. The match was played on 25 September 2026 in the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations qualifying campaign.
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