What Is Non-Penalty xG (npxG)? A Complete Guide to Non-Penalty Expected Goals

Non-penalty xG (npxG) measures expected goals while excluding penalty kicks. An illustrated football statistics graphic explaining non-penalty expected goals (npxG), showing the difference between total xG and penalty xG

Non-penalty expected goals (npxG) is a football statistic that measures the quality of a player's or team's chances while removing the expected-goals value of penalties.

In simple terms, npxG = xG excluding penalties.

The metric is useful because penalties are very different from normal shots. A penalty is taken from a fixed location with only the goalkeeper between the ball and the goal, so including penalties in a player's overall xG can make comparisons between players less straightforward.

For example, if two forwards have similar open-play chances but one is his team's regular penalty taker, their total xG can be significantly different. Looking at npxG allows analysts to focus specifically on the quality of chances generated from non-penalty situations.

What Does npxG Mean in Football?

npxG stands for non-penalty expected goals.

It is calculated by removing the expected-goals value of penalty kicks from a player's or team's total xG.

The basic concept is:

npxG = Total xG − Penalty xG

So, if a player records 8.5 xG during a period and 1.56 of that comes from two penalties, their npxG would be:

8.5 − 1.56 = 6.94 npxG

The exact value assigned to a penalty depends on the xG model and data provider. Different models can use slightly different penalty values.

The important point is that the penalty is removed from the expected-goals calculation, not from the player's actual goal tally.

To understand npxG properly, it helps to first understand how xG is calculated in football.”

Why Are Penalties Removed From xG?

Penalties are removed because they represent a very different type of scoring opportunity from ordinary shots.

A normal shot can be influenced by factors such as:

• Distance from goal
• Shooting angle
• Body part used
• Defensive pressure
• Number of defenders nearby
• Type of assist
• Position of the goalkeeper
• Whether the chance follows a cross, through ball or rebound
• The location and speed of the attacking move

A penalty does not have the same characteristics.

The ball is placed on the penalty spot, the goalkeeper is positioned on the goal line and the shooter has a relatively uncontested opportunity.

Because penalties are converted at a much higher rate than ordinary shots, their xG value is also high.

Removing them can therefore make it easier to assess a player's non-penalty chance quality.

How Is npxG Calculated?

The calculation is straightforward.

Formula

npxG = Total xG − Penalty xG

Consider a hypothetical striker with:

• Total xG: 7.20
• Penalty xG: 1.56

His npxG would be:

7.20 − 1.56 = 5.64

This means that 5.64 xG came from non-penalty opportunities.

Importantly, npxG does not mean the player had 5.64 actual goals. It represents the expected scoring value of his non-penalty chances.

Example

Imagine Player A has:

Player A scored nine goals, but his non-penalty opportunities were worth 8.44 expected goals.

This gives analysts another way to understand where the player's attacking output came from.

What Is the Difference Between xG and npxG?

The main difference is penalties.

xG includes the expected-goals value of penalty kicks, while npxG removes them.

Suppose two forwards have the following statistics:

Looking only at xG, Player A has the higher number.

However, Player B has the higher npxG.

That tells us that Player B generated more expected-goal value from non-penalty situations.

Neither statistic is automatically "better." They answer different questions.

xG describes total expected scoring opportunities, while npxG isolates expected scoring opportunities without penalties.

Why Is npxG Important?

npxG is particularly useful when comparing attacking players.

A player who takes penalties can accumulate a large xG total without necessarily producing more non-penalty chances than another forward.

For example, imagine two strikers:

Striker A

• 15 xG
• 4 penalty attempts
• 11 npxG

Striker B

• 13 xG
• 0 penalty attempts
• 13 npxG

Striker A has the higher total xG, but Striker B has the higher npxG.

This distinction can be important when analysing:

• Open-play attacking
• Shot quality
• Chance generation
• Striker performance
• Player comparisons
• Finishing
• Team attacking strength

npxG and Player Comparisons

One of the biggest uses of npxG is comparing players who have different responsibilities within their teams.

A regular penalty taker receives additional high-value scoring opportunities.

If those penalties are included in xG, the player's total can become considerably higher than that of a teammate or rival who does not take penalties.

npxG removes that difference.

This means analysts can compare how much expected-goal value players generate from non-penalty situations.

For example:

Forward A has more total xG, but Forward B has more npxG.

The difference comes largely from penalty opportunities.

You can also compare npxG with a player's expected assists by learning what xA is in football.”

Does npxG Include Missed Penalties?

No.

The penalty itself is removed from npxG whether it is:

• Scored
• Saved
• Missed

The important factor is that it was a penalty attempt.

For example, if a player has three penalties during a season, those penalty attempts are excluded from their npxG regardless of how many were converted.

However, the actual goals scored from penalties still count in the player's goal total.

This is an important distinction.

npxG is an expected-goals statistic, not a replacement for goals scored.

Does npxG Include Free Kicks?

Generally, yes.

npxG specifically removes penalties. It does not automatically remove every set-piece opportunity.

Depending on the data provider and xG model, shots from:

• Direct free kicks
• Corners
• Rebounds
• Open play
• Headers

can remain part of the non-penalty xG calculation if they qualify as shots in the model.

Therefore, non-penalty xG should not be confused with open-play xG.

They are not necessarily identical.

npxG vs xG: Which Should You Use?

The answer depends on the question you are asking.

If you want to understand a player's total expected scoring opportunities, xG is useful.

If you want to compare non-penalty chance quality, npxG is more appropriate.

For example:

Use xG when:

• Looking at total attacking output
• Measuring all scoring opportunities
• Comparing team attacking production
• Analysing total expected goals

Use npxG when:

• Comparing strikers who take different numbers of penalties
• Analysing non-penalty attacking output
• Evaluating chance quality without penalty influence
• Comparing open-play attacking contribution

The two statistics work best when used together.

If you are new to expected goals, our guide explains what xG means in football and how analysts use it.

What Is npxG per 90?

npxG per 90 measures a player's non-penalty expected goals relative to 90 minutes of playing time.

It is useful because total npxG can favour players who have played more minutes.

The basic calculation is:

npxG per 90 = npxG ÷ Minutes Played × 90

For example, if a player records 6 npxG in 1,800 minutes:

6 ÷ 1,800 × 90 = 0.30 npxG per 90

That means the player's non-penalty expected-goal production was equivalent to 0.30 xG per 90 minutes.

This allows analysts to compare players who have played different amounts of football.

However, per-90 statistics should be interpreted carefully, particularly for players with small numbers of minutes.

npxG and Finishing

npxG can also be useful when examining finishing performance.

A simple comparison is:

Goals − npxG

Suppose a striker records:

• 12 non-penalty goals
• 9.0 npxG

Their difference is:

12 − 9 = +3.0

The player scored three more non-penalty goals than the expected-goals value of their non-penalty chances.

On the other hand, a striker with:

• 7 non-penalty goals
• 10 npxG

would have:

7 − 10 = −3.0

This indicates that they scored fewer non-penalty goals than the expected value of their chances.

However, this should not automatically be interpreted as proof that a player is a better or worse finisher. Finishing analysis can be affected by sample size, shot quality, goalkeeper performance and the characteristics of the underlying xG model.

Another useful metric for evaluating attacking performance is xG per shot.

npxG Does Not Tell the Whole Story

Although npxG is useful, it should not be viewed in isolation.

A player's attacking performance involves much more than expected goals.

For example, two players can have identical npxG but create very different numbers of opportunities for teammates.

Other statistics can help provide additional context:

• xA
• Key passes
• Shots
• Shots on target
• Progressive carries
• Progressive passes
• Big chances
• Touches in the penalty area
• Assists
• Goals

This is why modern football analysis usually combines several metrics instead of relying on one statistic.

npxG for Teams

npxG can also be used at team level.

A team's non-penalty xG measures the expected scoring value of its non-penalty chances.

For example:

Team A

• xG: 2.40
• Penalty xG: 0.78
• npxG: 1.62

Team B

• xG: 1.70
• Penalty xG: 0
• npxG: 1.70

Team A had the higher total xG, but Team B produced slightly more expected-goal value without penalties.

This can provide additional context when analysing match performance.

npxG and Match Analysis

When reading football match statistics, npxG can help explain whether a team's attacking threat was mainly generated through ordinary attacking situations or boosted by penalty opportunities.

For example, a team could finish a match with 2.5 xG after receiving two penalties.

Its npxG could be substantially lower.

Another team might record 1.8 xG entirely from non-penalty chances.

Looking at both numbers provides a more complete picture of the attacking performance.

For a broader understanding of match data, see our guide on how to read football match statistics.”

What Is a Good npxG?

There is no universal npxG figure that should automatically be described as "good."

The appropriate level depends on:

• Position
• Playing time
• League
• Team strength
• Tactical role
• Number of shots
• Quality of chances
• Competition level

A centre-forward is generally expected to produce more npxG than a defensive midfielder because their roles are different.

For this reason, npxG is most useful when compared with players performing similar roles and playing similar amounts of football.

npxG and Expected Goals Models

It is important to remember that xG is model-dependent.

Different providers can assign slightly different expected-goal values to the same shot because their models may use different variables and datasets.

These can include:

• Shot location
• Shot angle
• Assist type
• Body part
• Defensive pressure
• Previous actions
• Goalkeeper position
• Game state

Consequently, two websites may report slightly different npxG figures for the same player or team.

When comparing data, it is best to use figures from the same provider and understand how that provider defines the metric.

npxG vs Goals

Goals and npxG measure different things.

Goals tell us what actually happened.

npxG estimates the quality of the non-penalty scoring opportunities that were created or taken.

For example:

Player A scored more goals, but Player B generated more expected-goal value from non-penalty chances.

This does not mean one player is automatically superior. It simply tells us that the two players produced different results relative to their non-penalty chance quality.

Common Mistakes When Reading npxG

1. Thinking npxG is the same as goals

It is not.

npxG is an expected value, while goals are actual outcomes.

2. Assuming npxG excludes every set piece

It does not necessarily do so.

The defining feature of npxG is the removal of penalties.

3. Assuming higher npxG always means a better player

npxG measures expected-goal production. It does not capture every aspect of football performance.

4. Comparing players with very different minutes

Total npxG naturally favours players who have played more minutes.

npxG per 90 can provide additional context.

5. Comparing figures from different models without checking definitions

Different providers may calculate expected goals differently.

npxG FAQs

What does npxG stand for?

npxG stands for non-penalty expected goals.

What is npxG in football?

npxG is a measure of expected goals with penalty-kick xG removed.

Is npxG the same as xG?

No. xG includes penalty opportunities, while npxG excludes their expected-goal value.

Why is npxG useful?

It helps analysts compare non-penalty attacking output without the influence of penalty opportunities.

Are missed penalties included in npxG?

No. Penalty attempts are excluded from npxG whether they are scored, saved or missed.

Does npxG include free kicks?

A direct free-kick shot can remain in npxG because npxG specifically removes penalty kicks rather than all set pieces.

What is npxG per 90?

npxG per 90 expresses a player's non-penalty expected-goal production over a standard 90-minute period.

Is a high npxG good?

A high npxG indicates a player or team generated a larger amount of expected-goal value from non-penalty chances, but it should be interpreted alongside playing time, position and other statistics.

Final Thoughts

Non-penalty xG (npxG) is one of the most useful variations of expected goals for comparing attacking performance.

By removing penalty xG, the statistic gives analysts a clearer way to examine the quality of non-penalty chances generated by players and teams.

The most important distinction is simple:

xG measures expected goals including penalties, while npxG measures expected goals with penalties removed.

Neither metric should completely replace the other. Instead, using xG, npxG, goals, npxG per 90 and other attacking statistics together can provide a much richer picture of football performance.